Iditarod 46: My Top 10

I had so many goals for this season in making sure my blog kept going and had great insights into what we were seeing in the sport - I got massively sidetracked with vacation, work, and the Olympics. Oooo shiny! is my theme so far for this year it seems.

That being said, it IS time for me to make horrible guesses as to who has the best chance to be named champion of the 46th running of the race. I feel like the race should be two weeks out, not less than a week (Thursday is the Musher's banquet). So, this is what it is. I think I did fairly well... 8 of my picks made the top 10 and the who who didn't came in 11th and 12th. Go me! I expect I won't have quite the same success this year, but I'm hopeful that my picks are fairly accurate.

My list is once again alphabetical by first name as I don't want to try and talk percentages in who's most likely to take first.

Aaron Burmeister - Aaron last raced three years ago in 2015. Since then he's been key in some of the rule changes we've seen handed down by the ITC Board. I'll try to stay neutral about all of that, but Burmeister's team has seen action while he's been "retired". Aaron's team has been run in the Iditarod by his brother Noah (is my understanding, comment below if I am wrong). Aaron came in third in his last Iditarod race, and I don't expect him to be too far off the pack this time around either. It will be interesting to see just how he stacks up with this year's roster.

Aliy Zirkle - Her husband Allen Moore just won the Yukon Quest with essentially the team she will take to Nome. This is how they've done things for a while. He runs the A team in the Quest, Aliy runs it in the Iditarod. Zirkle typically runs the YQ300 with the B team that Moore then takes on Iditarod. Zirkle did not run the shorter Quest this year as she was unable to plan a race that would be fast enough for her to then head for Dawson to meet up with Allen and the Red Team. I've said it the last few times, but really, the weak link on this team seems to be Aliy. I hate saying that, but sometimes she gets too in her head and she plays it safe at just the wrong time. I do feel, though, that if the Red team is that much faster than the Black team that she may have a freight train heading to Nome.

Jeff King - The four-time Iditarod Champion is still looking for number five. He's come close in the last decade or so, but after his brief retirement he hasn't been able to make it happen. He's come close, but teams are starting to pass him. Is it age? Well, Mitch Seavey's proven old dogs can still win this thing. Is it strategy? It could be, what won races even 10 years ago doesn't work these days it seems. King was out of the top ten last year, but just barely (he came in eleventh). Whatever placement he gets, however, we're sure to have an entertaining time watching him run his team. I'm not so secretly hoping he can tie Swenson's record.

Jessie Royer - My girl Royer. What can I say? She came fifth last year, a year that saw a lot of women shaking up the racing scene. She's had a fairly good season again this year, and I don't expect that she plans to sit back and relax this year. Jessie's steadily gotten better, and she's a true veteran of this trail. I believe that Jessie should be the top ranked lady musher coming into the race. Yes, I said it. As I said last year: Should she pull off a win, it'd be an upset, but she'd also become the first non-Alaskan woman to win. She's got the goods, she could pull it off.

Joar Leifseth Ulsom - I know, I fan girl over his face every year, but seriously. I feel like he is constantly posing when he's on those runners! All jokes aside, Joar is not a joke. He was fourth last year. Fourth. It was a fast race from Fairbanks to Nome in 2017. Joar came in to a roaring crowd in Nome (I missed it, how I don't know, but I did...I blame exhaustion). Joar is one of those "silent teams". He's got the goods, but very rarely does he really make the conversation by the folks "in the know". It's probably how he likes it, he can just sneak in. Maybe he'll sneak in first to Nome?

Mitch Seavey - The THREE-time and defending champion shows no signs of slowing down. Mitch won last year's race in record time with a team he says he could not slow down. They flew into Nome wowing everyone with their endurance and strength. Mitch had never seemed happier with a team, and I hear many of his team from last year were in the running to make this year's team. Seavey spent most of his time further north of his stomping grounds training, and he skipped the Tustumena 200 this year opting to keep with his training schedule. I never count Mitch out, but without Dallas Seavey in the race to compete against during training and the race, it will be interesting to see Mitch's style and strategy. Can this be a year for Mitch to hit a fourth win? I'm hoping if Jeff can't take it that Mitch can.

Nicolas Petit - The only races this guy hasn't won this season are the ones he didn't enter. Petit is hungry. He came in a controversial third place in last year's race (minutes behind Dallas Seavey who accidentally left his vet book at a previous checkpoint, but Nic brought it to the finish and allowed Dallas to stay in the race). I do not expect for Petit to accept anything but first, this could mean that he makes some risky decisions (risky race wise, not life threatening). I expect him to push his team hard, they've trained and raced that way for several years now. Petit will rise or he will fall hard. There doesn't seem to be an in between.

Pete Kaiser - Pete just won yet another Kusko 300. They had some issues with trail this year with warmer temps keeping a lot of the race from the river. From the sound of things, the race on the coast for Iditarod will be very similar. Kaiser is a solid team, and last year came 9th. He's always in the conversation, as he should be. He knows what it takes to win, he just has to put his team in a position to make a move.

Travis Beals - I have been sitting here for a few hours trying to decide if Travis should be on this list or if I should go with a Redington. I'm still not sure I chose correctly, but Travis does seem to have a strong team this year. Beals had to take some time off from Iditarod after he was banned from the race for domestic violence "issues" that he had to work through. Beals followed court orders, and jumped through all of the hoops, which satisfied the race officials to allow him to participate in this year's race. Travis comes from solid family tradition in mushing and turned heads early on his career (hence his kennel's name "Turning Heads"). Travis did not take time off from training dogs while satisfying court requirements, and I expect him to have a good showing in this year's race.

Wade Marrs - He set the pace last year and man, he almost had it. It was exciting to watch Wade race against the Seavey's with their own game! He's no doubt learned a lot from that and I expect him to not make the same "mistakes" twice. He's also had a really nice racing and training season, and seems very confident. Where he might have had some distraction was having to be the face and spokesperson for the Iditarod Finisher's Club in regards to the Doping ruling on Dallas Seavey and what all that drama entailed. In a week he'll be able to let go of distraction and just mush. He'll be pushing.




Honorable Mentions:

Gonna go with Ray Redington Jr on this one, he placed very well last year (in the top ten) and has been very hot on the racing circuit this season. I'll also give Ramey Smyth another chance, he should always be in the conversation. He was in my top 10 last season and came in 12th. Not bad.


Which mushers do YOU have in YOUR top 10? Who are you cheering for? Agree/Disagree with my picks? Let me know your thoughts in the comments, and check back as I continue to blog about the 45th running of the Last Great Race!

Iditarod 43 - My Top 10

The 43rd running of the Iditarod is set to take place in just two weeks. Lack of snow has forced the race to run further north than ever before, with the ReStart moving for only the second time in race history to Fairbanks. This levels the playing field in a way as none of the teams have any real experience on the new trail (which visits several villages/checkpoints for the very first time) so their run-rest strategies are at best educated guesses.

This may be one of the races where it truly is more about the dogs and their abilities and not the mushers. Who knows? It's all anyone's guess.

So This year I'm going with 10 names that I think are just on the upswing, or at least have that experience needed to keep the dogs from over doing it before that final push. They're not in any particular order - I'm not that good at predicting (in fact this list is probably going to just jinx them all).

Tonichelle's Top 10 

Brent Sass - Brent just won the Yukon Quest with his team of amazing dogs. His only real issue that was reported on the trail was when he overslept (you'd think he'd learn not to do that after Jeff King lost the Iditarod to Lance Mackey back in 2008 doing the exact same thing). He had to run down Allen Moore running the A team out of his kennel. The same team that Aliy Zirkle will run in the Iditarod. Moore's team kicked it up a notch in the final stretch, but seemed to tire through most of the race. Sass's team seemed to "feed the monster" (as the Seavey's say) at all the right times. After the bad fall last season that ended his Quest and Iditarod runs, Brent finally delivered on his potential. I have no doubt this will BOOST his confidence going into the Iditarod.

Dallas Seavey - Dallas came seemingly out of nowhere last March to win the race. Jeff King was supposed to have the win in the bag, but his team refused to run in the horrible winds as they made their way to Safety. Jeff had to flag down some snow-machiners to help him and his dogs get to the checkpoint. At that point he scratched as teams cannot have outside help. That meant that Aliy seemed to have the race in the bag as Dallas was a long ways behind her - but with the winds being what they were and the news from all weather reports saying it was only going to get worse, she decided to hunker down and wait them out. Dallas was unaware of any of it and ended up continuing (better to just run in the wind than sit in it, afterall) which put him in the lead and gave him just enough time to win the darn thing. He's just that lucky - and he's also just that good. I don't know what his team looks like this year, but his goal is to stay consistently in the top 5. He's young, confident, and a two time champion. There's no way in Hades you should count him out.

Jeff King - Jeff is a wildcard in a lot of ways. He had to scratch on the Quest due to the extreme cold and the fact that he didn't have enough food for the dogs to compensate at the checkpoint he was at. It was a difficult decision, but it was the RIGHT ONE. That a certain kennel that "will be running the Iditarod" (I bet they scratch before the halfway point) called him out for that should not even factor into one's mindset when discussing King's racing skills. Jeff is one of the most experienced mushers out on the trail - it's his dogs that don't seem to have the experience to finish a thousand mile race. They don't like running when the going gets tough in the last stretch. However, that was one of the reasons King ran the Quest. He wanted to train them up. I expect King to finish this year, and I wouldn't bet against him coming in first. He was set to do it last year. He can do it again. Just pray for no wind gusts in the last 77 miles to Nome.

Aliy Zirkle - This is her year. It has to be. Her team has come in second the last three years in the Iditarod, and just came in another close second on the Yukon Quest (husband Allen Moore ran that team). Quito will no doubt still be lead dog over the 1000 mile race, and with that knowledge the team can't fail. So long as those dang Seavey's don't take control of the race in the last leg... as long as she doesn't slow her team down... as long as this isn't another one of those insane races that is completely unpredictable. If there's a team in this race that I desperately want to see win this year - it's Aliy's. She more than deserves it, but she has to be able to take it.

Martin Buser - Buser and son got themselves in a bit of trouble in one of the season's earlier races. They "took the wrong turn" and ended up on a shortcut. Both of them did. Hmmm. Makes the spectators go hmmm. It ticked a certain other musher off who was lower in the standings because of it. It had people discussing issues of the Buser racing "strategies" over the year. Still - Martin is a 4 time Iditarod champion, and a crowd favorite. He made some pretty bold pushes in last year's race, but his team couldn't keep the pace they'd set. After their 24 hour layover they lost speed and ended up in a lower position than they'd planned. Martin's son Rohn is also running this year - and I'm  not sure they aren't splitting the A team in two again. Still, I wouldn't count Martin out. Especially on a trail that no one is familiar with.

Peter Kaiser - Another musher riding high after winning the Kusko in his hometown, Pete is looking good to make a move this year. The last couple of years he's been just outside of the top ten (13th both in 2014 and 2013), but those were warm weather years. While Alaska has been VERY warm this winter, with the race running further north this might help this Coastal team keep from overheating. And it COULD drop in temps like the Yukon Quest for the early part of the race, which should also help teams like Pete's.

Mitch Seavey - I'll be honest, I am completely out of the loop these days with Team Seavey. Last year was my last year with them, so I am not current on training reports, dog reports, etc... but this is Mitch. He's consistent, he knows how to drive dogs. I've no doubt he's got a solid schedule set for the new trail, and I expect his team to run well. He came in 3rd last year... and, oh yeah, his team WON the thing (second time for the musher) in 2013. I think leaving his team off this year would be a very stupid idea. And it's not just because I'm a biased fangirl.

Richie Diehl - I'm gonna give this guy some props, in just his second year he came in 14th, not too shabby. I don't expect him to win the darn thing, but I expect him to break the top 10 if all goes well. Basically he's my dark horse in this whole thing.

Aaron Burmeister - It was said that Dallas Seavey won his first Iditarod title thanks to Aaron Burmeister because Dallas's team consisted of many of Burmeister's A team. Aaron had decided to retire and sold off many of his dogs - Dallas snatched them up and the rest is history. Then Aaron decided to come back to the sport (shocking. most can't stay retired) and it's like he never left.He's stayed consistently in the top 10, coming very close to winning several times. With the trail being new to everyone for the first half, he may have the advantage on the coast - his home base. The dogs know where home is and know how to get there.

Ray Redington Jr - Ray's having a great year, even with his scratch from his rookie run on the Yukon Quest. He's another musher who's had a run of top 10 finishes, and his team seems to be really clicking this season. He's poised for a great race, and should be able to adapt to the new trail with the rest of the best. I'd love to see a Redington finally win the race. They're a strong mushing dynasty - and of course the Iditarod wouldn't even exist had Joe Redington Sr not gotten the crazy idea in his head. Look for Ray to make a move again this year, and don't be surprised if he goes all the way.




So there's my top 10. What's yours? Comment on this blog post and let me know if we agree, disagree, or what you'd like to see happen during Iditarod 43.

Tonichelle's Top 10 Teams of Iditarod 2014

This year I feel at a loss on how to choose teams with any real "authority" on how they will do. With the awful weather we've had this winter and most of the late season races being cancelled it's hard to pick the top teams with any confidence. Even teams that were fantastic last season may not be quite as strong this year (due to retirements of different dogs, training time, etc). Without much info to go on with how most trained, let's just say these are guesses based on bias and past results... and what little knowledge I think I have about the sport.


1. Aliy Zirkle - the SPKennel has been one that doesn't seem to be affected by adverse trail conditions this year. Not that the races they ran were rough and tumble, but they were definitely challenging. Aliy will once again be running their A-team, and considering her second place finishes the last two years, I really really really hope this is her year.

2. Martin Buser - so long as he doesn't try something completely outside of the box, Martin should do fairly well this year. He typically does well in years where teams have to be "babied" a little more than normal, and his team's done pretty well under the care of his son Rohn. It will really come to musher mentality, IMO, over team capabilities. Because the dogs seem more than capable of going all the way for a win!

3. Dallas Seavey - this could go either way. Last year he was running a team filled with a lot of newbie dogs. Pups he's raised in his kennel. Now they're coming in as veterans, but there's no real way to judge how they will do in the conditions being reported currently on the trail.

4. Mitch Seavey - reigning champion, he's planning on taking quite a few of last year's team with him to Nome. Tanner will once again lead his team, hopefully to another victory. He's been training all over when there's been snow, and if they've trained at all in the Sterling area as well then they'll have a lot of dry land training in as well. Mitch does well with a "slower" trail, so it will come down to strategy and skill, both of which he excels at.

5. Jeff King - there's some rumor going around that he's planning to withdraw, but until I see it I'll keep him on my top 10 list. He's a four time Iditarod Champion. His dogs have been learning the ropes quickly (though they quit before Nome). I have faith.

6. Ray Redington Jr. - He made a statement last year with the way he drove his team, I have no doubt he will be in the mix again this year. The Redingtons need a Champion at some point in this race, don't you think? Ray seems to be the one who agrees with me! ha ha!

7. Robert Sorlie - he has a pretty good Iditarod track record, but he's coming back from a long hiatus from the race (though I believe his team has been very active in races in Europe). Still, he has good a chance - if not better - than anyone. I am not going to count Team Norway out!

8. Jake Berkowitz - Jake's got the team, he just have to really go for it. I have no doubt he can, but with the trail conditions being what they reportedly are, we could see him pull back or even pull out. We'll see, but I have high hopes for Jake!

9. The Smyth brothers - don't make me choose between Cim and Ramey. Either one of them can come whipping practically out of nowhere to make the race very interesting. Normally it's Ramey, but, we'll see. I just can't in good faith leave them out of my top 10. In the Iditarod nearly anything is possible.

10. Paul Gebhardt - I've been waffling between several teams, but something keeps pulling me back to the Gebhardt ticket. He is a consistent "also ran" and it would be a huge upset, but there again...


Honestly I think I should've just gone with five, I really can't figure out if my picks are good or not. I just don't know enough about the teams this year. I just hope for a good race, and an awesome trail. Good luck to all of the teams!