Let the Games begin!

Photos from NBCOlympics.com.

The 2014 Winter Olympic Games kicks off this weekend in Sochi, Russia. The Opening Ceremonies are on Friday (tape delayed for the US, of course), but there are events happening the day before - and they're awesome.

Anyone who's followed my blog for any length of time knows that I'm a figure skating fan. I'm not one that know every rule, every technical term, or what not - but I've followed the sport for *gulp* 25 years. I won't ever meet the requirements for ISU judge, but that doesn't stop me from having predictions that have at least a little knowledge behind them.

This is the first Olympics that there's a TEAM figure skating event. Don't confuse it with synchronized skating - this ain't it. The ISU has been toying around with the concept for a few years, and they've recently implemented it in their line up of competitions - it typically is after the World Championships.

Apparently the different skating federations have decided that choosing the skaters to represent in the team event is to be closely guarded for strategy. I'm not sure how or why that works, but the teams are being named as close to competition as possible. The Team consists of one skater or team per discipline per country. Two substitutes per country can be added/switched for the long programs. Skaters for the Team Event must also have qualified for the Individual Event of their discipline at both their Federation and the International Skating Union (ISU) level.

Skating fans have been discussing for weeks now as to who will be skating in what portion of the team event. The skaters for Thursday's competition have been named, and there's no surprise on the list. The Sochi Official site does not have any info past the Men's and Pair's short program entrants, and only a few teams have gone on to list their entire team. Team USA made statements throughout Wednesday naming who they planned to send out for the short programs, with some news reports also listing the long (a lot of contradictions).

Here's what we know about Team USA going into the Team Event:

Men's Short - Jeremy Abbot
Pairs Short & Long - Castelli & Shnapir
Ladies Short - Ashley Wagner
Dance Short & Long - Davis & White

It's rumored that Gracie Gold will take the Ladies Long. One should also safely assume that Jeremy Abbot will get to skate both short and long, however fans are hoping Jason Brown gets to skate his long to River Dance in the team event.

Looking at rosters, it's a good chance that Team USA will be on the podium, but they're not a lock for gold. Russia has a strong team with several skaters looking at medals in the individual events which bodes well for a team event (Pairs, Mens is possible with Evgeny Plushenko, though he is not unbeatable). Couple that with them skating in their Home Country and it's a good bet that they're looking at a gold. Team Canada is also incredibly strong (Mens & Dance). Team Japan have strong ladies and men, but don't come close in pairs or dance. USA has only one discipline where we realistically have a chance to win and that's ice dance. Our pairs are mediocre at best (when it comes to the best in the world), and our ladies and men are good skaters when they're on... but they aren't always on.

The US media, and NBC in particular will breeze over this fact... but don't let them fool you. USA *could* win, but it will take a lot of determination on the part of the team - and faltering from other skaters - to make it happen. It's possible, but not likely. Still, I expect them on the podium.

I look at Russia or Canada taking gold.

Why Ashley Wagner deserves her spot on the US Olympic Team

Ashley Wagner placed 4th at the US National Championships
this weekend in Boston. (Reuters photo.) 

US figure skating fans found themselves in one of two camps Sunday when the USFSA announced the ladies team for the 2014 Winter Olympic Games set to take place next month in Sochi, Russia. Two time and defending National Champion Ashley Wagner was the topic on everyone's lips. Wagner, having placed fourth in Saturday's ladies finals, was named to the team over third place (and former National Champion) Mirai Nagasu.

Fans, skaters, and sports analysts have all chimed in with how they feel about the decision announced Sunday on who would represent the USA in the games. Former top ranked US skaters and coaches have battled it out with fans and others of the "in crowd" on social media for the better part of Sunday - overshadowing the Men's long program event - many voicing their concern for Mirai's feelings while negating Wagner's.

Four years ago Mirai Nagasu made the Olympic team, narrowly beating Ashley Wagner for the second of two spots. Wagner was devastated to miss out on the Vancouver games and spent the last four years working consistently to better her skating and position on the world stage. That work seemed to be paying off with the two wins at Nationals coupled by her improved International standing. It was Wagner along with teammate Gracie Gold (who won the Championship on Saturday) who regained the three spots leading up to the Sochi Games.

Meanwhile, Mirai saw waning success after a 4th place at the Vancouver Olympics. Mirai's last try at the World Championships was in 2010 and saw her land in 7th place. She's struggled with a very up and down career since then, managing 3rd in 2011 and 7th in both 2012 and 2013 at the US nationals. She managed a couple of medals in the last four years in the Grand Prix series - in events where most of the top world contenders were not present and she was favored to take the title.

Mirai has seen her own sent of controversy when her former coach, the legendary Frank Carroll called her out for her [lack of] work ethic. Nagasu is an expert twitter-er, and would call out fans who even suggested criticism of her programs or skating. After coach hopping, Mirai spent the current season without a coach all the way to Nationals.

Part of Nagasu's problems with her skating is her lack of ability to rotate fully in her jumps, which in turn forces judges to downgrade them to easier levels and fewer points.

The USFSA traditionally goes with the skaters who land on the podium at nationals when choosing their Olympic and World team, but the rules clearly state that US Nationals is not the only determining factor for the team. This is the reason Ashley was chosen over Mirai.

From late 2011 till now Ashley Wagner has been the frontrunner of American Ladies skating. She won her national titles in 2012 and 2013 - though some would argue she was gifted in 2013, medaled on the Grand Prix Series as well as the Final, and in 2012 she was 4th at Worlds. Nationals was the time she truly faltered. While it is true that she does not seem capable of winning the Olympics, she has - so far - shown to be the only USA lady even close to medaling at all in Sochi. She sees the bigger picture of team play, and that, too, went in her favor.

Yes, it is sad that Mirai has been left off. If we want to judge just by international experience and results she should be on and US Silver Medalist Polina Edmunds should be the one off the team. That teams have traditionally been who makes the top of the podium is not and should not be the reason why Ashley should be left from the team. Why should any team shoot itself in the foot by leaving one of their more consistent skaters at home because of an off night?

Mirai has done herself no favors be alienating the powers that be in the past. Ashley does not "toe the party line" but she has demonstrated that she is serious and willing to work for her goals. She has great packaging, and an even better support team. Mirai has... Mirai. No coach, because she either fires them or they fire her. The most controversy Ashley can come up with is her stance on Russia's Anti-Gay Laws. Not something that will come in play on the ice.

It could very well be that Gracie Gold continues the upswing and becomes the American Media Darling by being the highest ranked US lady at the Olympics. Polina could also deliver. There's not a lot of evidence to suggest they will, but there's more evidence against Mirai than there is against any of the three on the ladies team. Ashley Wagner may not have earned it "that night" but she's earned it "overall".

All she has to do now is shake it off and forge ahead. She's done that before, and her body of work suggests she'll do it again.

Look who's back in town!

Sasha Cohen proved many wrong this morning when she finally took to the Nationals practice ice. Many have been waiting for this hyped event. Sasha Cohen: Back in the Competition.

Her practice was promising, during her run through she hit her jump combination and her double axel. Her solo jump - the triple flip - ended in a fall, but still, she looks strong. But, she isn't unbeatable. Not this time.


The others hoping to win one of the two spots are also making a buzz in Spokane, albeit a softer one. Rachel Flatt, Ashley Wagner, Alissa Czisny, Mirai Nagasu, and Caroline Zhang all have equal chances and are all favored to do well. All have their strong points, but, like Cohen, all have a long way to go to be the clear front runner. Where they all have an advantage over Cohen is they've not been out of competition these past few seasons - and they're not in the spotlight.

First up tomorrow will be Rachel Flatt. She's been the bridesmaid the last couple of seasons at these championships (coming in second in 2008 to Mirai Nagasu, and second to Alissa Czisny last year) and many are wondering - and hoping - that this is her year. She IS the top ranked US lady in the world rankings, but that doesn't mean she'll win here (Evan Lysacek is the top ranked man in the world, and he came in second to Jeremy Abbott this past weekend). Rachel has the goods, and rarely misses a delivery, but she seems to lack the spark one needs to really win the judges over. She's sailing fairly low on the radar, but then outside of Sasha none of the ladies seem to be getting the attention of the press.

Last year's champion, Alissa Czisny is a total wildcard. No one is sure which Alissa will show up, but the audience is guarunteed to see a skater who won't bring everything she has to the table - aside from breathtaking skating. Even with the flawed jumps (pops, falls, negated) her programs seem to capture attention. Her girl next door looks make it incredibly difficult not to root for her. Will she be able to hang onto her title? Improving upon what she did last year will be the only way she'll get that lucky twice. Will she make the Olympic Team? It'll take a whole lot more than that megawatt smile.

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Favored by *this* author is Ashley Wagner for no other reason than personal preference! (hey it's my blog I can be biased, girl skated for Alaska not too long ago, how awesome is that?) She's not the totally "pretty little ice princess" that the others are. She's also not a diva. She's an athlete. She's artistic second. She's all sport. And she looks fantastic doing it. She's determined to become a better skater, taking the time to correct her flawed edges in her jumps. She's not fully there, the tech caller is still dinging her, but she's making the effort. Money's on her to fly under the radar and take it all - so long as she stays focussed on the job ahead and not the outcome. She wants this one bad

The underdogs are Nagasu and Zhang. Both have been bitten by the puberty bug. They were dynamos when they came on the scene, and are still incredibly promising - but their recent growth spurts have made their ascent to the top slow considerable.

Nagasu had difficulty handling the pressure of National Champion as she won when she was just fourteen. A lot of expectations were heaped upon her, and coupled with her growth spurt last season was an emotionally rough one. No one could blame her for wanting to have a redeeming nationals, and that makes for a great underdog type story. She stated in interviews earlier this week that she was just looking for the joy in the sport again; there's always 2014! Here's hoping she has a fantastic competition, and who knows she might just see Olympics 2010 up close and personal!

Caroline Zhang. Touted as the "next Michelle Kwan" by most, she combines the simplicity of the American Sports Icon with the flexibility of fellow competitor Sasha Cohen. Problems for Caroline, though, are her speed and her jumps. She gets nailed for underrotation and wrong edge take offs, and she is painfully slow. She's getting better. 2010 may not be her year, but one has to wonder just how long she'll continue before getting completely discouraged. She certainly shows her frustration with teh judging; should she begin to really work on what they want - mainly speed - she'd be better off. Is it within her to go all out in Spokane? She's not the most flexible this year with Cohen back in the mix, so she's going to have to pull out all the stops so that she's not lost in teh shuffle.

No matter what, the ladies short program is going to be hyped to the hilt, and shouldn't be disappointing (why would it? Pairs and Men killed over the weekend!) Good luck to all the competitors, not just the favorites. What a great birthday present for me!

Photos by Getty Images and Associated Press c/o DayLife.com.