Each year it's harder to choose a top ten for the Iditarod, there are so many quality top teams it can be very hard to narrow down who has the best chance. Time and again we see that the slightest blip can control the race. A star lead dog has to go home unplanned. A freak snow storm blows in. A musher cuts their hand or severs their finger... or falls asleep and lets their team take the wrong turn and run the wrong way for over an hour.
It's cliche but the trick to winning the Iditarod is run your race, have everything go right for your plan and have things go wrong with everyone else's. It's not just skill involved, but luck. Weather, trail conditions, it all plays its part and it's completely out of everyone's control. Nearly 50 years into the Last Great Race and even with all of the improvements to training, trail, dog care, equipment... it still comes down to Mother Nature calling the shots.
So which teams have the best shot? It's hard to say, but here are ten that should be right up there.
Aaron Burmeister - Most years I put Burmeister in the "honorable mentions" because he's always a contender, and last year he came in 10th. Burmeister's team is a solid team, and he's a fantastic dog driver. Nome's "hometown hero" would need a lot to go right for him to be the top team to finish, but it's not too much of a stretch to see him challenge for that title. Deeper snow trails seem to be a game changer for Burmeister, and Alaska has had a fairly decent snow season. Expect Burmeister to hang back a bit until the halfway mark before turning up the speed.
To learn more about Aaron Burmeister check out his
Iditarod Bio, and
Facebook.
Aliy Zirkle - The overwhelming fan favorite, and for good reason, Aliy Zirkle is still a top ten team. Though her best finishes came in 2012-2014, she has consistently been top 10 for the last ten years. She is one of the few mushers to never have a scratch to their name since starting her first Iditarod 19 years ago. As has been her team's schedule, they once again ran the Yukon Quest with Aliy's husband Allen Moore and placed a very respectable 4th on a very difficult trail. Aliy CAN go all the way and make it first to Nome. Is this the dog team to run her there? Time will tell.
You can learn more about Aliy and SPKennel through her
Iditarod Bio,
Website,
Facebook,
Twitter, and
Instagram.
Jessie Royer - I have to apologize to Jessie for counting her out last year. Royer was the first woman to Nome last year coming in third behind Pete Kaiser and Joar Leifseth Ulsom. Royer is a solid dog musher, and even though she didn't hit any of the big races in Alaska this season until Iditarod, she's not sat back and let everyone else have all the fun. Jessie just won Race to the Sky in Montana - again - and is no doubt on the road to Alaska to get the team acclimated for their 10 day trek across the state. Do not be surprised if Royer once again is one of the top teams in Iditarod.
To learn more about Jessie view her
Iditarod Bio,
Website,
Facebook, and
Instagram.
Joar Leifseth Ulsom - The 2018 Iditarod Champion narrowly missed out on his second title last March, coming in just twelve minutes after Champion Pete Kaiser. Joar has run the Iditarod 7 times and has NEVER BEEN LOWER THAN 7TH. He is one of the safest bets to make the top ten, and the silent threat for first. Joar's team isn't *slow and steady* but they definitely give off that vibe of quiet calm. Look for Joar to make his move once they hit the coast.
You can learn more about Joar from his
Iditarod Bio,
Website,
Facebook, and
Instagram.
Michelle Phillips - She was just 4 hours behind Brent Sass in the 2020 Yukon Quest, and for most of the race had people convinced she'd come out the winner. Phillips did not run last year, opting instead to cheer her husband Ed Hopkins along his first Iditarod. She's not cracked the top ten in Iditarod, but that could very well change this year. The only question is if her dogs have enough rest on them after a very challenging Quest.
To learn more about Michelle and the dogs of Tagish Lake Kennel visit her
Iditarod Bio,
Website,
Facebook, and
Instagram.
Mitch Seavey - The three-time Iditarod Champion (and record holder for fastest time and oldest champion) had a bit of a difficult race last year and ended up 9th after several wins in the top 3 over the last few years. The second generation Iditarod musher (his dad, Dan, is one of the original Iditarod mushers known as the Trailbreakers who helped to start the race) is your classic dog musher... but he's also proven you can teach an "old dog new tricks" and that's why he's finding himself consistently vying for the title - keeping all the "young guns" at bay. Don't expect this year to be any different. He's in it to win.
You can find Mitch all over the internet, check out his
Iditarod Bio,
Website,
Facebook, Tour
Facebook,
Instagram, Tour
Instagram, and
Twitter.
Nicolas Petit - This guy's only real kryptonite seems to be the run from Shaktoolik to Kaltag. Nic has easily taken the lead for most of the last three Iditarods only to have something go wrong as he heads up the coast. In 2018 he got lost following the wrong markers, and ended up losing his lead to Joar Leifseth Ulsom. Last year his dogs altogether stopped in the same section, and Nic suspects they had remembered too much of what had happened in '18 and didn't want to repeat it so they sat down. Nic has had a far easier race schedule than in previous years as well, so maybe 2020 is his year?
To learn more about Nic and "the kids" visit his
Iditarod Bio,
Website,
Facebook, and
Twitter.
Pete Kaiser - The reigning Iditarod Champion is still riding high after making history in 2019. Pete also regained his Kusko 300 Champion title after losing it to Matthew Failor last year. Last year I made the statement that it wasn't a question of if Pete would win the Iditarod but when... and so it was not surprising to see him running first down Front Street in a snow and windstorm in Nome. It's hard enough winning the Iditarod more than once, back to back is an even bigger challenge, but Pete has a solid team and a good strategy. It would not be surprising.
To learn more about Peter Kaiser check out his
Iditarod Bio,
Website,
Facebook,
Twitter, and
Instagram.
Ramey Smyth - Can I just point out that Ramey beat Mitch in last year's Iditarod? Smyth is known for his fast finishes, and is a force out on the trail. He charged up the trail nearly catching Dallas Seavey and Aliy Zirkle in 2012, and he seemingly came out of nowhere to do it. While we shouldn't expect him to do that again and win, do not count this team out ever. Even when the race starts off on the wrong foot, Ramey pulls it together like no other. Expect him near the top again. (Oh and he's another one of those 2nd generation mushers, his dad ran the first Iditarod, his mother ran in the 2nd Iditarod!)
To find out more about Smyth check out his
Iditarod Bio, and
Facebook.
Travis Beals - The last two years Travis has been in the top 10, and if you go by the pattern you could maybe thing he will be in the top 3 this year as he seems to be improving his placement with that big a leap each year. There's a reason why they named their kennel "Turning Heads". Travis' goal from the start was to be one of the top kennels in the world, and he's well on his way. It will be interesting to see what 2020 has in store for Beals.
To learn more about Travis and Turning Heads Kennel read his
Iditarod Bio,
Website,
Facebook,
Twitter, and
Instagram.
But I can't stop at 10. The field is so deep there are so many incredible teams, and the littlest things on the trail can turn the race on its head. So let me give you five "honorable mentions" who could really blow apart the predictions above.
Jeff King - It's hard not having King in the top 10, and he's my best bet to actually be one of the "honorables" to crack the top 10 and even challenge for the lead. 4-Time Iditarod Chamion Jeff King was a late entry for this year's race due to his not being sure he'd be recovered from shoulder(?) surgery in time for training and the race. Everything seems to be going well, and King entered a couple of mid-distance races and did quite well. It's hard to say where Jeff will end up, but I don't expect him to be out of the top 20.
You can read more about Jeff and the Husky Homestead from his
Iditarod Bio,
Website,
Facebook,
Twitter, and
Instagram.
Matthew Failor - The 2019 Kuskokwim Champion didn't crack the top 10 in the 2019 Iditarod, but that doesn't mean he isn't on the upswing. Many teams had their race slow when the snow storm blew in as they ran up the coast, and he still managed a top 20 finish. He's yet to crack the top ten, but he's gotten close a few times. He could sneak in this year.
To learn more about Matthew Failor and his dogs, check out his
Iditarod Bio,
Website,
Facebook, and
Instagram.
Paige Drobny - Not going to lie, I'm starting to feel like I should put Paige in the top 10. She's another one that could definitely jump to the top this year, or any year. The Top Dawg at Squid Acres Kennel, Paige came in seventh in the 2019 Iditarod and it would not be surprising to see here there again - it's just such a competitive field it's hard to know just who will rise above the rest. The dogs of Squid Acres managed a third place finish in the Yukon Quest with Cody Strathe, so this could be another year Drobny is top 10.
To learn more about Paige and the dogs of Squid Acres click on her
Iditarod Bio,
Website,
Facebook, and
Instagram.
Richie Diehl - Diehl nearly chased down Matt Failor in the 2020 Kusko 300, barely missing out on a second place finish. Diehl is another Western Alaska musher who has really made a mark on the sport of long distance mushing. In 2018 Richie managed a top 10 finish and barely missed out on the top 10 last year. Like Drobny he should probably be in the top 10 predictions, but the field is so strong that some mushers just ended up down here because there wasn't room!
To learn more about Richie you can check out his
Iditarod Bio, and
Facebook.
Wade Marrs - Stump Jumpin' Kennel has three top ten finishes under their belt, but Wade's last two Iditarods have been especially tough. He was unable to complete the 2018 Iditarod, scratching on the Coast, and last year's difficult trail saw the team finish in 14th. However, Wade could very well break the top 10 again with his team. Wade grew up watching and learning from many of the best dog drivers, and has applied all he's learned to his own kennel. He was president of the Iditarod Finisher's Club, and is very active with the continued positive advancement of the sport.
To learn more about Wade Marrs visit his
Iditarod Bio,
Website,
Facebook, and
Instagram.
As I noted, this field is incredibly strong. There are other names like Brent Sass, Jeff Deeter, Jessie Holmes, Kelly Maixner, Jason Campeau, Linwood Fielder, and Ryan Redington (to name a few) could easily blow apart these predictions. So much of it comes down not only to talent and experience but luck of the bib draw, the weather, etc. Every little factor becomes a big factor in how this all shakes out. No matter what, this is looking to be an incredibly challenging and exciting race and I'm here for it. Are you?
Comment below with your thoughts, who are YOUR top ten and how do you choose? Are you running a Fantasy Mushing team? Let me know your hopes for this year's Iditarod in the comment section below.
