I had so many goals for this season in making sure my blog kept going and had great insights into what we were seeing in the sport - I got massively sidetracked with vacation, work, and the Olympics. Oooo shiny! is my theme so far for this year it seems.
That being said, it IS time for me to make horrible guesses as to who has the best chance to be named champion of the 46th running of the race. I feel like the race should be two weeks out, not less than a week (Thursday is the Musher's banquet). So, this is what it is. I think I did fairly well... 8 of my picks made the top 10 and the who who didn't came in 11th and 12th. Go me! I expect I won't have quite the same success this year, but I'm hopeful that my picks are fairly accurate.
My list is once again alphabetical by first name as I don't want to try and talk percentages in who's most likely to take first.
Aaron Burmeister - Aaron last raced three years ago in 2015. Since then he's been key in some of the rule changes we've seen handed down by the ITC Board. I'll try to stay neutral about all of that, but Burmeister's team has seen action while he's been "retired". Aaron's team has been run in the Iditarod by his brother Noah (is my understanding, comment below if I am wrong). Aaron came in third in his last Iditarod race, and I don't expect him to be too far off the pack this time around either. It will be interesting to see just how he stacks up with this year's roster.
Aliy Zirkle - Her husband Allen Moore just won the Yukon Quest with essentially the team she will take to Nome. This is how they've done things for a while. He runs the A team in the Quest, Aliy runs it in the Iditarod. Zirkle typically runs the YQ300 with the B team that Moore then takes on Iditarod. Zirkle did not run the shorter Quest this year as she was unable to plan a race that would be fast enough for her to then head for Dawson to meet up with Allen and the Red Team. I've said it the last few times, but really, the weak link on this team seems to be Aliy. I hate saying that, but sometimes she gets too in her head and she plays it safe at just the wrong time. I do feel, though, that if the Red team is that much faster than the Black team that she may have a freight train heading to Nome.
Jeff King - The four-time Iditarod Champion is still looking for number five. He's come close in the last decade or so, but after his brief retirement he hasn't been able to make it happen. He's come close, but teams are starting to pass him. Is it age? Well, Mitch Seavey's proven old dogs can still win this thing. Is it strategy? It could be, what won races even 10 years ago doesn't work these days it seems. King was out of the top ten last year, but just barely (he came in eleventh). Whatever placement he gets, however, we're sure to have an entertaining time watching him run his team. I'm not so secretly hoping he can tie Swenson's record.
Jessie Royer - My girl Royer. What can I say? She came fifth last year, a year that saw a lot of women shaking up the racing scene. She's had a fairly good season again this year, and I don't expect that she plans to sit back and relax this year. Jessie's steadily gotten better, and she's a true veteran of this trail. I believe that Jessie should be the top ranked lady musher coming into the race. Yes, I said it. As I said last year: Should she pull off a win, it'd be an upset, but she'd also become the first non-Alaskan woman to win. She's got the goods, she could pull it off.
Joar Leifseth Ulsom - I know, I fan girl over his face every year, but seriously. I feel like he is constantly posing when he's on those runners! All jokes aside, Joar is not a joke. He was fourth last year. Fourth. It was a fast race from Fairbanks to Nome in 2017. Joar came in to a roaring crowd in Nome (I missed it, how I don't know, but I did...I blame exhaustion). Joar is one of those "silent teams". He's got the goods, but very rarely does he really make the conversation by the folks "in the know". It's probably how he likes it, he can just sneak in. Maybe he'll sneak in first to Nome?
Mitch Seavey - The THREE-time and defending champion shows no signs of slowing down. Mitch won last year's race in record time with a team he says he could not slow down. They flew into Nome wowing everyone with their endurance and strength. Mitch had never seemed happier with a team, and I hear many of his team from last year were in the running to make this year's team. Seavey spent most of his time further north of his stomping grounds training, and he skipped the Tustumena 200 this year opting to keep with his training schedule. I never count Mitch out, but
without Dallas Seavey in the race to compete against during training and the race, it will be interesting to see Mitch's style and strategy. Can this be a year for Mitch to hit a fourth win? I'm hoping if Jeff can't take it that Mitch can.
Nicolas Petit - The only races this guy hasn't won this season are the ones he didn't enter. Petit is hungry. He came in a controversial third place in last year's race (minutes behind Dallas Seavey who accidentally left his vet book at a previous checkpoint, but Nic brought it to the finish and allowed Dallas to stay in the race). I do not expect for Petit to accept anything but first, this could mean that he makes some risky decisions (risky race wise, not life threatening). I expect him to push his team hard, they've trained and raced that way for several years now. Petit will rise or he will fall hard. There doesn't seem to be an in between.
Pete Kaiser - Pete just won yet another Kusko 300. They had some issues with trail this year with warmer temps keeping a lot of the race from the river. From the sound of things, the race on the coast for Iditarod will be very similar. Kaiser is a solid team, and last year came 9th. He's always in the conversation, as he should be. He knows what it takes to win, he just has to put his team in a position to make a move.
Travis Beals - I have been sitting here for a few hours trying to decide if Travis should be on this list or if I should go with a Redington. I'm still not sure I chose correctly, but Travis does seem to have a strong team this year. Beals had to take some time off from Iditarod after he was banned from the race for domestic violence "issues" that he had to work through. Beals followed court orders, and jumped through all of the hoops, which satisfied the race officials to allow him to participate in this year's race. Travis comes from solid family tradition in mushing and turned heads early on his career (hence his kennel's name "Turning Heads"). Travis did not take time off from training dogs while satisfying court requirements, and I expect him to have a good showing in this year's race.
Wade Marrs - He set the pace last year and man, he almost had it. It was exciting to watch Wade race against the Seavey's with their own game! He's no doubt learned a lot from that and I expect him to not make the same "mistakes" twice. He's also had a really nice racing and training season, and seems very confident. Where he might have had some distraction was having to be the face and spokesperson for the Iditarod Finisher's Club in regards to the Doping ruling on Dallas Seavey and what all that drama entailed. In a week he'll be able to let go of distraction and just mush. He'll be pushing.
Honorable Mentions:Gonna go with
Ray Redington Jr on this one, he placed very well last year (in the top ten) and has been very hot on the racing circuit this season. I'll also give
Ramey Smyth another chance, he should always be in the conversation. He was in my top 10 last season and came in 12th. Not bad.
Which mushers do YOU have in YOUR top 10? Who are you cheering for? Agree/Disagree with my picks?
Let me know your thoughts in the comments, and check back as I continue to blog about the 45th running of the Last Great Race!
