Friday, February 21, 2025

Iditarod 53 top ten (and change)

It's safe to say we are fully into a new chapter of Iditarod. The torch was fully passed several years ago and a new wave of mushers have fully cemented themselves in the top class. Perhaps it's because we're down to smaller rosters than in the 80s, 90s, 00s, and teens. Perhaps it is because the "legends" have mostly moved on allowing the next generation to create their own legends. Whatever the case, more and more the "up and comers" from just a few years ago are the "favorites to win". It's a bittersweet love to see it. That being said, there are a lot of familiar faces on this year's top ten (and change) list.

We have two Iditarod Champions coming back for another go. One won just two years ago, the other last won in 2017 and has been away from the race since 2022. One is considered to be in the "prime age range" for an Iditarod musher, the other currently holds the title of oldest champ AND is the oldest musher in this year's field. Both have ties to the Iditarod's beginnings. Legacy mushers if you will, but ones who have created legacy in their own right.

While one might think they have the advantage (and in many ways they do) with this year's last minute reroute announcement on a trail that is showing currently as being over 1100 miles long it's given everyone a little more equal footing. The drop bags had been planned for the Southern Route, not 600+ miles of river running where miles between checkpoints can sometimes be further. The race says it will do its best to match drop bags with the new checkpoints, but it's still a guessing game as to strategy. Guessing who will adapt quickest is the name of the game.

So let's take a look/guess at who just might crack the 2025 top ten (without hopefully jinxing them). We will go alphabetically just to seem organized.

Jeff Deeter - Coming off of his Yukon Quest Alaska 550 win (his first race win ever), Deeter looks poised to contend for the champion title in this year's race. Jeff's steadily climbed the ranks since 2018 (his rookie year was 2008 but he took time off to build a home and kennel). Jeff's entire season has been focused on building a winning team for Iditarod this March. He came fourth last year in a very tight battle at the finish, choosing to hold back and make his move on the coast. It paid off. Deeter is serious about his chances this year.  


Jessie Holmes - The 2024 third place finisher in Iditarod is looking to build off of last year's near win with taking it all the way. Holmes championed the mushers' case to change the route after reports had many worried that the traditional route was not a good option. Jessie says the team he has this year is the team he's been building for. He's trained with this team all year off grid in the interior, choosing to focus on Iditarod this year and not many mid-distance races and the one he did enter (Copper Basin) he won! Holmes runs atop mountains (and films it) but won't have too many chances to test out those skills this year on the trail.


Matt Failor - While Matt has just a single top ten finish in his career history, he does know how to race on rivers. The 2019 Kuskokwim Champion just might be one of the teams that does very well on the new route. Failor is known for his care for his dogs as well as his sportsmanship on the trail (remember he's the one who got to gut a couple moose out on the trail a few years ago - and did it properly with very little experience). Consider Matt a wildcard in the race.



Matt Hall - Hall. Is. Serious. Coming second to Dallas Seavey last year may have lit a raging fire under the 2017 Yukon Quest (back when it was still 1000 miles, remember) champion. Matt decided to solely focus on the Iditarod this year. He started cross training doing marathons/cross country type running. He's been following an athlete diet. He's not gone out on any races (his wife did take their team out on the Copper Basin). He has said multiple times in interviews that he's going for one thing in this year's race. Matt Hall is focused, don't count him out.


Michelle Phillips - Michelle just won the Yukon Quest in Canada, which wasn't a total surprise, she kinda owns that race these days. Michelle's last Iditarod was in 2022. She got caught in the windstorm that thwarted many teams finishes, but managed to make it through to the finish and came 17th. There was a bit of a squabble over how she handled the storm with her team (may have bent or even broken a rule or two) but ultimately the race sided with her (after she appealed). She took time off from Iditarod, but has come back this year with a strong looking team. 


Mille Porsild - You'd be hardpressed to find a tougher woman in this field than Mille Porsild. Last Iditarod the woman ran most of the race during a bout of pancreatitis! Her race could have completely derailed -and nearly did in McGrath when she was forced to take her 24 to try and regain health before being allowed to continue. She placed an impressive 7th place under the circumstances. Mille just finished up the Yukon Quest in Canada coming in 4th place in a very competitive 450 mile race. This will be Porsild's sixth Iditarod, her lowest placement was 15th her rookie year, she's only finished out of the top 10 twice.


Mitch Seavey - The three-time Iditarod Champion is back on the runners after taking some time away. In that time he watched his son Dallas win an historic sixth Iditarod (just last year) with some of the dogs from Mitch's kennel. But we aren't talking about Dallas, we're talking about Da Man Seavey. He's the record holder for oldest Champion as well as fastest finish time (2017). A man of few words, Mitch's bio on the Iditarod website simply reads that he is running the Iditarod "because it is hard." A few years back Mitch said he would only run the Iditarod until he felt he was no longer competitive. Expect him to race for a top placement.


Paige Drobny - Paige and her team of disco dogs (IYKYK) also known as The Squids surprised everyone, including maybe even the musher, as they came from behind and picked off many of the top teams. Paige had planned to run a relaxed and fun race with her team of younger dogs. It was about experience and not just pushing for a top placement. But as the race ran on Paige realized her team was ready for more. She placed fifth place right behind Jeff Deeter. Paige was a last minute entry for this year's Iditarod and it was after she and husband Cody realized just how special a team they had. Cody took the team to the Kusko (his first time there) and came third just 32 minutes after the winner. They just might be right about this team's speacialness.

Riley Dyche - Full disclosure, it was pointed out that the race preview for the Kusko was not fair to Riley. And Riley proved that right when he nearly ran away with the race in Bethel. Riley ended up just minutes behind Pete Kaiser and was incredibly candid about the "mistake" that cost him the win. Riley is very much a dark horse just because he has chosen to stay off social media, so unless one is within the inner circles of mushing it is quite easy to count him out. Let's not make that mistake again. He took last year off to work on his home and kennel and took this season to solidify his seat at the table.


Ryan Redington - The 2023 Iditarod champion had something to prove (in his mind) when he won. The grandson of Joe Redington Sr. - the Father and Founder of the Iditarod - was well aware that a Redington had yet to win Joe's race. Ryan had really hoped the 50th running of the Iditarod would be THE year, but it was the 51st running that he took home the title. Ryan has taken it a little easy this year choosing to allow handlers to have a little more fun while he sat back with some of his younger dogs. Now it's Ryan's turn to take the top dogs of his kennel out on the trail. It will be interesting to see if he chooses to start of fast as he typically does, or if he holds back considering the extra 150ish miles this year's route has added to the trail.

Travis Beals - In 2024 the new dad was in a place he'd never been previously: leading the Iditarod. While Travis had a solid race plan, he started to improvise to protect his lead, and it was just a little too soon for the sort of move he tried. In trying to keep space between him and the chase pack, he neared burn out. The musher realized the mistake and course corrected for preserving his team and not trying to push through it (top it off he injured his eye which he dealt with for the final third of the race). He finished 6th and mentioned in post interviews it was a huge learning curve. Travis is a good study of Iditarod strategy and no doubt will take the lessons of 2024 into 2025. 


You'll note the top 10 is really a top 11. Right now the Iditarod feels a lot like the 70s and early 80s of the race where the race was top heavy with excellent teams all poised to take the top spot. It comes down to skill, planning, as well as the breeding and training programs of the dogs. There are other teams that are wildcards and could play spoilers to get into the top 10 and mix things up. Perrenial fan favorite Nicolas Petit chose to spend the winter training in Eureka, running only the Kusko saying he needed to try something different to prepare for Iditarod. Rookie Jenny Roddewig is a second-generation musher who spent most of her life dreaming of Iditarod, she's a seasoned competitor with several wins in mid-distance races under her belt (blogger note: when she signed up on opening day there were a LOT of people, mushers and officials, excited to see her there) she's looking like she'll be in the running for Rookie of the Year. Many will be looking at Jason Mackey or Brenda Mackey to be the next great musher out of the legendary Mackey family - Brenda of course is focused on finishing what she started in 2021 and getting her belt buckle, Jason is hoping to find that magic carpet ride his father and older brothers experienced. 

There's an argument to be made for just about every team on the roster this year to make the top ten.

With so much river running it will be up to the mushers to keep their teams focused. A lot of similar scenery is tough on all living being's psyche, and if there's wind, they'll feel like it's a wind tunnel (dogs hate the wind in their face, so this blogger's been told). It's been suggested that teams that carry dogs (Seavey and Beals will be the teams most likely planning this strategy, not confirmed) the resting dogs while on the trail in the sled bag was a strategy Jeff King initially tried, and Dallas Seavey perfected it (Mitch learned some of those tricks, too). It's a controversial strategy as some mushers feel that it's not in the spirit of the race which is to run with your team not rest half of it while the others pull. Still, it's not against the rules and it's a musher's choice whether or not to use the strategy to their advantage.

With just eight days until the Ceremonial Start, fans have a lot of time to think and rethink their Fantasy Teams, and hopefully this top ten and change can help the choices being made... or maybe it'll just further confuse things. It's that most wonderful time of the year!


Who do you think will be in the top ten? Thoughts on who was overlooked? Is anyone overhyped? Comment with your thoughts below!




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13 comments:

  1. Love your analysis!

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  2. Think you just about nailed it

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    1. we shall see, normally one or two teams totally throw a wrench into my predictions.

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  3. Thank you for this detailed commentary on each musher. I am ready now (armchair musher with an Otter Run shirt to prove it.)

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    1. thank you for reading! I am.... not ready yet. LOL come help me get ready for start weekend!

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  4. If you have any interest in entering "Wisest Old Owl's" Brag'n Rights " prognostication pool for this year's race, email me at "joylerpa@icloud.com".

    ReplyDelete