Teams running out of real estate to catch Holmes

Travis Beals and team at the Ceremonial Start of Iditarod 54.
Anchorage, Alaska. March 7, 2026.

Jessie Holmes continues to dominate the trail of Iditarod 54. The reigning Iditarod Champion has led for much of the race and sits with a nice cushion of over 2 hours ahead of the next team. The musher has been very candid throughout the race that he had a goal of joining two other legendary mushers to repeat his win on his first win.

While there are a handful of mushers who have won multiple Iditarods and some winning back to back, only two mushers in the last 53 runnings have defended their first win. Susan Butcher was first to do it when she won in 1986 and then again in 1987. It wouldn't be until 2007 and 2008 when Lance Mackey won the first two of four consecutive wins that a first time champ would repeat back to back.

Now Holmes is poised to be the third. 

Jessie Holmes and his Team Can't Stop dogs have just left Elim after a little over three hours in the checkpoint. Travis Beals and Wade Marrs have attempted to make a charge up the coast to catch the champ. Beals told Insider he felt like his team should be the winning team, Wade Marrs told Insider he had to just keep running the race he had planned and wait for someone to slow up (or mess up) so he could possibly take advantage. Beals rested nearly five and a half hours in Koyuk, Marrs stayed mere minutes. Both will most likely need to break up the run from Koyuk to White Mountain.

Paige Drobny who kept pace with Holmes for much of the middle of the race has seemingly conceded first, and is now in the battle for second place. Drobny is still running a similar schedule to that of Holmes which is opposite in many ways of Beals and Marrs.  The Squids are now facing a battle for fourth against Jeff Deeter who has made a huge leap along the coast to get into the mix.

Travis Beals is currently nine miles behind Holmes, he's rested 5.5 hours to Jessie's 3(ish) hours but Beals has been running several hours and will have to take a break sooner rather than later. Beals is quickly running out of real estate to make a move on Holmes. Barring any random storm popping up out of nowhere (there's nothing really dramatic forecasted for the front runners at this time) that can slow a team up, it may be too late to catch Holmes.

Further back the race for Rookie of the Year continues to be an interesting one. Sam Martin has seemingly pulled ahead to have a strong lead in the RotY department. Kevin Hansen and Martin have been duking it out for much of the race, but the team from Kotzebue is the third ranked rookie leaving Unalakleet Monday. Sandwiched between the two - and currently running two miles ahead of Hansen. Terry's run fairly conservatively to this point and it will be interesting to see how he races on the coast - a very different terrain from the races he's used to running.

Our red lantern has changed hands on the run from Kaltag to the coast. Currently Grayson Bruton is the final musher with Jody Potts-Joseph having leaped-frog (leap-frogged?) over the veteran musher after coming off the Yukon Monday.

Holmes has 43ish miles to go until he hits White Mountain and his final eight hour mandatory rest. He averaged a speed of 8mph on the run from Koyuk to Elim. It's less likely he'll stop now before White Mountain and so if he maintains that average he could be into White Mountain as early as 1:15am (give or take). That would put Holmes with a leave time of 9:15am and a ten to eleven-ish hour jaunt into the finish line from there. Puts him into Nome by dark Tuesday night. We'll know more once he has his official into time in White Mountain.

Do you think Holmes has this in the bag? Can Beals keep second place? Do you think Travis can catch Jessie? Comment below with your thoughts!

(and has this blogger mentioned math and she are not friends?)

Holmes, Drobny off the Yukon

Paige Drobny at the Ceremonial Start of Iditarod 54.
March 7, 2026. Anchorage, Alaska

It's a race to the coast for the two teams that have led the majority of the 54th running of the Iditarod. At 4:23pm AKDST Jessie Holmes made his way off of the Yukon River and into the checkpoint of Kaltag. The reigning Iditarod Champion stayed long enough to collect his prize from the sponsors - Bristol Bay Salmon as part of the "Fish First Award" for the first team in Kaltag - and then he headed across the way to Unalakleet.

Paige Drobny made it to Kaltag at 7:31pm AKDST and she too quickly left the checkpoint. Holmes elected to take a rest on the run to Kaltag, Drobny ran straight through. Both runs (when you factor out Holmes rest time) ran the run at about the same speed from Nulato to Kaltag. Drobny will have to stop soon to rest her team, and it's most likely she's headed for Tripod Cabin. Holmes is showing slower speeds on this run out of Kaltag, but he'll most likely run until he reaches Old Woman Cabin.

With what appears to be three hours between the two it feels like this race is solidly Jessie's - as long as he doesn't make a mistake or a giant storm blows him out to sea. However, Iditarod fans can remember a handful of times when a musher with a significant cushion had their race go sideways on the coast, so as long as Paige plays it smart, makes her move at the right time, and she keeps chipping away at Holmes' lead we could have ourselves a dog race by White Mountain.

The chase pack of Riley Dyche, Travis Beals, and Mille Porsild are on their way to Kaltag with Mille looking to come into the checkpoint in the next hour. Behind them are the rest of the top ten continually leap frogging over one another. Ryan Redington reported at the beginning of the race that he was dealing with a severe Gastrointestinal illness, but by the 24 hour layover he was over the worst of it. Fans earlier Saturday were concerned when Jessie Royer stayed well beyond her mandatory 8 in Galenda, spending nearly fifteen hours in the checkpoint. It's been said Royer is now feeling poorly and needed the extra rest for herself.

The Rookie of the Year race is heating up between Kevin Hansen and Sam Martin. The two have traded spots for the highest ranked first year rookie all race long, with Martin currently running between Galena and Nulato as Hansen sits in Galena. Neither musher has taken their mandatory 8 on the Yukon, but it looks like that may be what Hansen is doing now. Expect them to leap frog each other again before they make it to Kaltag. Jesse Terry is also in the hunt for ROTY and is within reach should the other two falter in the final leg.

The back of the pack is still going strong, with everyone into the checkpoint of Ruby as of 4:51pm AKDST. Will they continue to all stick together, or will we see some of them break away on the Yukon? Time will tell. Jody Potts-Joseph is the current red lantern in the race.

Holmes is showing as resting on the trail now and Drobny is 19 miles behind him, still running. Is Paige making her move here on the run to Unalakleet or will she shut it down for a rest here in the next few minutes? Time will tell.

Do you think Jessie Holmes has this in the bag? Will Paige be able to catch him? Will neither one be the 2026 champ? Comment with your thoughts below!