Monday, February 24, 2014

Tonichelle's Top 10 Teams of Iditarod 2014

This year I feel at a loss on how to choose teams with any real "authority" on how they will do. With the awful weather we've had this winter and most of the late season races being cancelled it's hard to pick the top teams with any confidence. Even teams that were fantastic last season may not be quite as strong this year (due to retirements of different dogs, training time, etc). Without much info to go on with how most trained, let's just say these are guesses based on bias and past results... and what little knowledge I think I have about the sport.


1. Aliy Zirkle - the SPKennel has been one that doesn't seem to be affected by adverse trail conditions this year. Not that the races they ran were rough and tumble, but they were definitely challenging. Aliy will once again be running their A-team, and considering her second place finishes the last two years, I really really really hope this is her year.

2. Martin Buser - so long as he doesn't try something completely outside of the box, Martin should do fairly well this year. He typically does well in years where teams have to be "babied" a little more than normal, and his team's done pretty well under the care of his son Rohn. It will really come to musher mentality, IMO, over team capabilities. Because the dogs seem more than capable of going all the way for a win!

3. Dallas Seavey - this could go either way. Last year he was running a team filled with a lot of newbie dogs. Pups he's raised in his kennel. Now they're coming in as veterans, but there's no real way to judge how they will do in the conditions being reported currently on the trail.

4. Mitch Seavey - reigning champion, he's planning on taking quite a few of last year's team with him to Nome. Tanner will once again lead his team, hopefully to another victory. He's been training all over when there's been snow, and if they've trained at all in the Sterling area as well then they'll have a lot of dry land training in as well. Mitch does well with a "slower" trail, so it will come down to strategy and skill, both of which he excels at.

5. Jeff King - there's some rumor going around that he's planning to withdraw, but until I see it I'll keep him on my top 10 list. He's a four time Iditarod Champion. His dogs have been learning the ropes quickly (though they quit before Nome). I have faith.

6. Ray Redington Jr. - He made a statement last year with the way he drove his team, I have no doubt he will be in the mix again this year. The Redingtons need a Champion at some point in this race, don't you think? Ray seems to be the one who agrees with me! ha ha!

7. Robert Sorlie - he has a pretty good Iditarod track record, but he's coming back from a long hiatus from the race (though I believe his team has been very active in races in Europe). Still, he has good a chance - if not better - than anyone. I am not going to count Team Norway out!

8. Jake Berkowitz - Jake's got the team, he just have to really go for it. I have no doubt he can, but with the trail conditions being what they reportedly are, we could see him pull back or even pull out. We'll see, but I have high hopes for Jake!

9. The Smyth brothers - don't make me choose between Cim and Ramey. Either one of them can come whipping practically out of nowhere to make the race very interesting. Normally it's Ramey, but, we'll see. I just can't in good faith leave them out of my top 10. In the Iditarod nearly anything is possible.

10. Paul Gebhardt - I've been waffling between several teams, but something keeps pulling me back to the Gebhardt ticket. He is a consistent "also ran" and it would be a huge upset, but there again...


Honestly I think I should've just gone with five, I really can't figure out if my picks are good or not. I just don't know enough about the teams this year. I just hope for a good race, and an awesome trail. Good luck to all of the teams!

Monday, February 17, 2014

Iditarod ReStart safe in Willow!

After a series of meetings that lasted far longer than officials originally planned, the media learned only moments ago that the ReStart for Iditarod 2014 will remain in Willow. Poor snow and trail conditions were a concern for race officials and mushers alike. Parts of the trail between Willow and the Yukon were unpassable. However, with the reports from the Iron Dog as well as aerial survelience and people on the ground Iditarod is officially underway as it's always been.

Stay tuned for more of my ramblings as we get closer to the race!

Skating & Mushing Come Together!

Pretty sure my dreams just came true. In support of Dew Claw Kennels there will be a skating event going on today in Anchorage. Wish I could be there. Skating and Iditarod?! What could be better?!

Saturday, February 8, 2014

Iditarod Willow ReStart in jeopardy

With the unseasonably warm weather of January, talk for the last several weeks has surrounded around the Iditarod and what the trail would be like - or if there was even enough snow to put on the race. February has been significantly colder in most parts of Alaska, but no snow has followed. It prompted a lot of rumors that the Iditarod would relocate to Fairbanks as it did in 2003. The Iditarod Trail Committee (ITC) took to facebook answering the questions late in January to say that it was too soon to make a decision. It didn't stop the rumors and talk, but fans at least had an official answer to go with.

The ITC went to facebook once again to make the announcement Saturday morning that the Ceremonial start will be in Anchorage. At this time, they said, they are still planning to go to Willow for the restart. However, while Anchorage and Willow have enough snow, the early part of the trail is causing concern. The ITC will monitor the situation and make an announcement mid-February as to whether or not they will need to move the race north.

Their post follows:

RACE PLANNING UPDATE: The Ceremonial Start of Iditarod XLII will be held in Anchorage on Saturday, March 1, beginning at 10:00 am as planned. At this time we are planning to stage the Restart in Willow on Sunday, March 2 beginning at 2:00 pm, also as planned. We do have trail concerns, particularly from the top of Rainy Pass to Nikolai. If conditions are not deemed acceptable by February 17, we will stage the Restart in Fairbanks on Monday, March 3, time yet to be determined.

Should they move the restart to Fairbanks, this will be the second time in race history that the Iditarod starts anywhere other than South Central Alaska.

Thursday, February 6, 2014

No surprises so far in Team Event

A Russian Cinderella story on ice.
Photo by Ivan Sekretarev/AP
People who are surprised with the results after the first day of Team Competition in Sochi are the ones that don't follow the sport, pure and simple. That the US media has done such a poor job of being realistic has not helped people understand or prepare for the idea that the rest of the world has caught us up.

As I stated in my previous post (Let the Games begin!), Team USA is going to be fighting for a podium placement, but it will not be gold. After the first two disiplines results for the team event - USA will be lucky to make the podium at all. But there are still more chances to win points, and we have the best coming up.

The skating events started (early morning for those of us in North America) Thursday with the men of the ten countries represented. Over all it was a well skated event, though many came crashing down at least once. By far the most talked about skater going into today was Evgeni Plushenko of Russia. Plushenko is the elder statesman in the event being 31, and this is his fourth Olympics. Should Team Russia make the podium - a good possibility - Plushenko will have medaled in all four games - which would seal his name in the record books. Plushenko has been absent from the sport for some time as he battled with injuries and surgeries, but he battled back to make the team. Russia had one spot in the men's event, and it was highly controversial that they went with Plushenko who had rough competitions at nationals and did not compete at the European Championships.

However, Plushenko showed the world he is not to be written off so easily. While visibly slow and scratchy on landings and spins, and obviously winded at the end of his short program, Plushenko found himself finishing 2nd out of 10. Not too shabby for the "grandpa".

Evgeny Plushenko showed emotion
after he finished his program.
Photo by Ivan Sekretarev/AP
Also, unsurprising, Patrick Chan and Yuzuru Hanyu are also in the top three, with Hanyu on top. Helping Japan secure the (very temporary) lead, which is well needed since Japan's pairs and dance teams are their weak links. Hanyu was nearly flawless in his short program, while Canada's Patrick Chan had some minor issues. If there's one thing to be surprised about - it's that the judging seems quite fair so far in these Winter Olympic Games. And, in of all places, RUSSIA.

On the not so great end of things, Jeremy Abbott once again reminded fans and viewers alike why he's the skater that is so great - who's never won anything of actual substance internationally. Abbott's done this to us before - four years ago in Vancouver. And he repeatedly does as he did Thursday. Abbott went out and wiped the ice. You could tell as he took his starting position that he was nervous, and that the nerves would take over. With the fall on the quad you could see in his face it was done, and for the next two minutes Abbot and skating fans alike let out a collective groan. So much talent in a skater who just was not made for competition.

The pairs short program also had a lack of surprises. Russia was clearly the front runner going into this event, and it showed. Canada and China join the Russians for the top three. And, in a good effort the US pair managed a fifth place finish after the short program. They had an issue on their side by side jumps, but overall had a great performance and were rewarded for it. That helped Team USA a bit, but there's a giant hole for the team to dig out of if they hope to make it to the final.

As it stands, the points after day one of Team Event are as follows:

1 - Russia - 19 points
2 - Canada - 17 points
3 - China - 15 points
4 - Japan - 13 points
5 - Germany - 10 points
6 - France - 10 points
7 - USA - 10 points
8 - Italy - 8 points
9 - Ukraine - 5 points
10 - Great Britain - 3 points

Tomorrow there is no competition for the skaters as it will be the Opening Ceremonies. Skating resumes Saturday with the Short Dance and Ladies' short program. the USA should make a big jump up in the standings after the dance portion, but it's anyone's guess if Ashley can shake off the results at nationals - and all the naysayers and haters that followed - and take on the pressure put on her to make the final. She has the ability to be great, but she has to have a handle on the nerves. Otherwise we'll see another skate like Abbott's. And there'll be no way to stop the hate.

Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Let the Games begin!

Photos from NBCOlympics.com.
The 2014 Winter Olympic Games kicks off this weekend in Sochi, Russia. The Opening Ceremonies are on Friday (tape delayed for the US, of course), but there are events happening the day before - and they're awesome.

Anyone who's followed my blog for any length of time knows that I'm a figure skating fan. I'm not one that know every rule, every technical term, or what not - but I've followed the sport for *gulp* 25 years. I won't ever meet the requirements for ISU judge, but that doesn't stop me from having predictions that have at least a little knowledge behind them.

This is the first Olympics that there's a TEAM figure skating event. Don't confuse it with synchronized skating - this ain't it. The ISU has been toying around with the concept for a few years, and they've recently implemented it in their line up of competitions - it typically is after the World Championships.

Apparently the different skating federations have decided that choosing the skaters to represent in the team event is to be closely guarded for strategy. I'm not sure how or why that works, but the teams are being named as close to competition as possible. The Team consists of one skater or team per discipline per country. Two substitutes per country can be added/switched for the long programs. Skaters for the Team Event must also have qualified for the Individual Event of their discipline at both their Federation and the International Skating Union (ISU) level.

Skating fans have been discussing for weeks now as to who will be skating in what portion of the team event. The skaters for Thursday's competition have been named, and there's no surprise on the list. The Sochi Official site does not have any info past the Men's and Pair's short program entrants, and only a few teams have gone on to list their entire team. Team USA made statements throughout Wednesday naming who they planned to send out for the short programs, with some news reports also listing the long (a lot of contradictions).

Here's what we know about Team USA going into the Team Event:

Men's Short - Jeremy Abbot
Pairs Short & Long - Castelli & Shnapir
Ladies Short - Ashley Wagner
Dance Short & Long - Davis & White

It's rumored that Gracie Gold will take the Ladies Long. One should also safely assume that Jeremy Abbot will get to skate both short and long, however fans are hoping Jason Brown gets to skate his long to River Dance in the team event.

Looking at rosters, it's a good chance that Team USA will be on the podium, but they're not a lock for gold. Russia has a strong team with several skaters looking at medals in the individual events which bodes well for a team event (Pairs, Mens is possible with Evgeny Plushenko, though he is not unbeatable). Couple that with them skating in their Home Country and it's a good bet that they're looking at a gold. Team Canada is also incredibly strong (Mens & Dance). Team Japan have strong ladies and men, but don't come close in pairs or dance. USA has only one discipline where we realistically have a chance to win and that's ice dance. Our pairs are mediocre at best (when it comes to the best in the world), and our ladies and men are good skaters when they're on... but they aren't always on.

The US media, and NBC in particular will breeze over this fact... but don't let them fool you. USA *could* win, but it will take a lot of determination on the part of the team - and faltering from other skaters - to make it happen. It's possible, but not likely. Still, I expect them on the podium.

I look at Russia or Canada taking gold.

Friday, January 31, 2014

Roster of 18 to run the Yukon Quest

The Yukon Quest, a thousand mile sled dog race that starts in Alaska and crosses into Canada, begins tomorrow morning at 11am. The roster includes 13 veterans and 5 rookies. Several of the veterans are known by even the most casual fans. Reigning champion Allen Moore is back to try to win another championship. Hugh Neff is back in the race, as well, with his laughing eyes team. Two time winner, John Schandelmeier is also back in the race trying for another title. John's taken a backseat - at least in the limelight - to his partner Zoya Denure who was considered an up and coming women's musher a few years ago. Denure is at home with their two daughters, so John is taking the helm for this race.

With the weather being unseasonably warm the last few weeks in Alaska, small changes have been made to this year's race. Instead of starting on the Chena River where they traditionally start, they will be running through the streets of Fairbanks before meeting up with the river later on down the trail. River conditions were cited as the reason behind the change.

The concern of trail conditions and heat will no doubt be the talk of early race discussion. Though most of South Central Alaska is mainly ice (if that) the Interior and Yukon areas have had a little better luck in keeping some snow on the trails. The weather forecast is also looking more favorably on the race as temperatures are dropping to closer to normal temperatures. But, it's anyone's guess how the race will play out weatherwise.

With the weather being so weird for this time of year, many of the races that one would use to gauge who the front runners are were cancelled. This leaves room for a lot of guess work and discussion as to who to choose for any sort of bets or predictions.

But here's my limited knowledge top three:

1. Allen Moore - not only is he the reigning champion, he and wife Aliy Zirkle have one of the best kennels in the 1000 mile race business right now. He won the Quest with his team, and she turned right around and came in second in the Iditarod (second time in as many years). This year Allen won the Copper Basin 300, which was one of two races that went on this season. It was a good bit of racing, and in the end he came out on top. No doubt his team will bring their A game once again.

2. Brent Sass - some may know him for his work on the first season of Ultimate Survival Alaska (it's a good show, by the way), but most who follow the sport know this up and comer is done waiting his turn. He's had top three finishes. I haven't paid much attention to his team this year so far, but something in my gut tells me he'll be one to watch for the Quest.

3. Hugh Neff - who doesn't love the Cat in the Hat? Neff breathes the Quest. He's won it before, and he's always in the mix. There's no indication that he can't win another one. It will come down to who wants it, not just musher - but team. No one seems more in tune with their dogs than Hugh.

Farewell January!

Kassy and Delaney treated me to birthday doughnuts before
we headed into the sanctuary to paint the walls.
Can it be the end of January already? Wasn't it just a week or so ago that we rang in the new year? It was a somewhat busy month. Between photos and helping with Church renovations I definitely was out of the house more than [my] normal.

The painting of the sanctuary was fast, took us 5 half days and it got done. It was thanks to a great group of people (I was terrified that it would just be Kassy and me). It's a lot less WHITE and has a little color and warmth in the walls now.

Our next project is to organize the church offices. We've already had a lot of fun with the shredder. And it's neat finding all of the old church photos and such. So much history. It will be interesting to put it all together.

My birthday was good. We celebrated a night early because it was MLK day and originally my mom's bff and her hubby were coming over. They couldn't make it, but we still had Kassy and Delaney over and we had prime rib and my favorite sides. And pumpkin pie for dessert. Delaney spent most of the evening in my room watching Disney Jr. but came out every now and again to entertain. She's a hoot.

On my actual birthday I was at the church painting, but Delaney made sure to sing me happy birthday and had me blow out my candles. It was low-key and that made it better than most. Oh, yeah, and they treated me to McDonald's for lunch. LOL

The rest of the month I've just been doing stuff online and photos. I'm hoping things pick up soon or I will be seriously job hunting. Don't really like that sound of it, but I have to do something to get the bank account back up to where I like it.

This is just a little random update into my life. Next comes dog mushing and Olympics posts I'm sure.

Sunday, January 26, 2014

Are we sure it's still January?

There should have been sled dog events happening in the state of Alaska this weekend. There should have been a more wintery feel to the Peninsula WINTER games this weekend. There should, at the very least, be pristine white snow lining the roads, ditches, and mountains of South Central Alaska.

But none of that happened. Are we sure it's January?

Now, before I hear the "global warming" mantra, let's remember that while it's not a regular occurance Chinook winds and warm weather do happen. With the Lower 48 seeing record low temperatures, it's actually understandable that we're in the mid to upper 40s every day (and night) in Alaska. Yes, the Globe is Warm. No, there's really no need to panic.

There is a need to worry, however. The Iditarod Sled Dog Race, set to start on March 1, could see a drastic change in trail. The only other time this happened was in 2003 when the Anchorage and Willow trails were non existent due to lack of snow. If the start moves further North it will most likely happen from Fairbanks. They've run it from there before (again, 2003). It gives a new audience for the start, but it shortens the race. But, it works in a pinch.

That is, if there's snow and trail to be had come March in the Interior of Alaska.

The Tustumena 200 made the announcement Monday that there would be no race this year. The race was set to go on February 2, but with the warm weather trail reports were dismal. Ice and flooding caused the directors to call off the race. This was to be the 40th running of the T200, and it boasted an impressive roster for both the 200 and 100 mile races. The purse was at an all time high. This was going to be the best race yet.

And, now, like most of Alaska's winter, it's washed away.

Things could turn around. There's a lot of "winter months" left on the calendar for the season. While the rest of the USA "freezes", we're contemplating breaking out our tanks and shorts. It's amusing, and sad, all at the same time.

Sunday, January 12, 2014

Why Ashley Wagner deserves her spot on the US Olympic Team

Ashley Wagner placed 4th at the US National Championships
this weekend in Boston. (Reuters photo.) 
US figure skating fans found themselves in one of two camps Sunday when the USFSA announced the ladies team for the 2014 Winter Olympic Games set to take place next month in Sochi, Russia. Two time and defending National Champion Ashley Wagner was the topic on everyone's lips. Wagner, having placed fourth in Saturday's ladies finals, was named to the team over third place (and former National Champion) Mirai Nagasu.

Fans, skaters, and sports analysts have all chimed in with how they feel about the decision announced Sunday on who would represent the USA in the games. Former top ranked US skaters and coaches have battled it out with fans and others of the "in crowd" on social media for the better part of Sunday - overshadowing the Men's long program event - many voicing their concern for Mirai's feelings while negating Wagner's.

Four years ago Mirai Nagasu made the Olympic team, narrowly beating Ashley Wagner for the second of two spots. Wagner was devastated to miss out on the Vancouver games and spent the last four years working consistently to better her skating and position on the world stage. That work seemed to be paying off with the two wins at Nationals coupled by her improved International standing. It was Wagner along with teammate Gracie Gold (who won the Championship on Saturday) who regained the three spots leading up to the Sochi Games.

Meanwhile, Mirai saw waning success after a 4th place at the Vancouver Olympics. Mirai's last try at the World Championships was in 2010 and saw her land in 7th place. She's struggled with a very up and down career since then, managing 3rd in 2011 and 7th in both 2012 and 2013 at the US nationals. She managed a couple of medals in the last four years in the Grand Prix series - in events where most of the top world contenders were not present and she was favored to take the title.

Mirai has seen her own sent of controversy when her former coach, the legendary Frank Carroll called her out for her [lack of] work ethic. Nagasu is an expert twitter-er, and would call out fans who even suggested criticism of her programs or skating. After coach hopping, Mirai spent the current season without a coach all the way to Nationals.

Part of Nagasu's problems with her skating is her lack of ability to rotate fully in her jumps, which in turn forces judges to downgrade them to easier levels and fewer points.

The USFSA traditionally goes with the skaters who land on the podium at nationals when choosing their Olympic and World team, but the rules clearly state that US Nationals is not the only determining factor for the team. This is the reason Ashley was chosen over Mirai.

From late 2011 till now Ashley Wagner has been the frontrunner of American Ladies skating. She won her national titles in 2012 and 2013 - though some would argue she was gifted in 2013, medaled on the Grand Prix Series as well as the Final, and in 2012 she was 4th at Worlds. Nationals was the time she truly faltered. While it is true that she does not seem capable of winning the Olympics, she has - so far - shown to be the only USA lady even close to medaling at all in Sochi. She sees the bigger picture of team play, and that, too, went in her favor.

Yes, it is sad that Mirai has been left off. If we want to judge just by international experience and results she should be on and US Silver Medalist Polina Edmunds should be the one off the team. That teams have traditionally been who makes the top of the podium is not and should not be the reason why Ashley should be left from the team. Why should any team shoot itself in the foot by leaving one of their more consistent skaters at home because of an off night?

Mirai has done herself no favors be alienating the powers that be in the past. Ashley does not "toe the party line" but she has demonstrated that she is serious and willing to work for her goals. She has great packaging, and an even better support team. Mirai has... Mirai. No coach, because she either fires them or they fire her. The most controversy Ashley can come up with is her stance on Russia's Anti-Gay Laws. Not something that will come in play on the ice.

It could very well be that Gracie Gold continues the upswing and becomes the American Media Darling by being the highest ranked US lady at the Olympics. Polina could also deliver. There's not a lot of evidence to suggest they will, but there's more evidence against Mirai than there is against any of the three on the ladies team. Ashley Wagner may not have earned it "that night" but she's earned it "overall".

All she has to do now is shake it off and forge ahead. She's done that before, and her body of work suggests she'll do it again.